Transfer Market Strategy: How Juventus' winning approach to player recruitment continues to pay dividends in the Champions League

Two years following Juve's run to the Champions League Final in Berlin, the Old Lady is back at it again with yet another impressive deep run into the final stage of the world's most prestigious club competition. A few hours away from kickoff of the final between Juventus and Real Madrid in Cardiff, I thought I'd revisit some of the transfer market strategies and tactics I highlighted 2 years ago, and also shed light on one additional component that just might give the Bianconeri the ability to go one step further than they did in Berlin.

Mature/Bosman Signings
The Bosman signings of Sami Khedira and Dani Alves highlight Juventus' continued impressive ability to find value in the transfer market like few clubs can. Both players, who have experience winning the Champions League (and a World Cup in Khedira's case), have been crucial during this season's campaign and could play a vital role later on today. To have signed these players for $0 is quite incredible.

Italian Core
Buffon, Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini and Marchisio form an Italian core that is critical to everything Juventus has achieved in the past few years. It's not a coincidence that the five of them (in addition to Swiss defender Stephan Lichtsteiner) have been with Old Lady for all of Juventus' six consecutive Serie A titles (a European record). The sense of identity they bring to the table is a characteristic well represented in all sides that have been dominant in the Champions League's recent history (Barcelona and Bayern in particular).

Statement Signings
Following the negative financial impact of Calciopoli, a new stadium (whose naming rights have just been sold to Allianz coincidentally), a more modern approach to commercial sponsorships, and Juventus' extended runs in recent Champions Leagues have all contributed to significantly amplified revenue streams that have enabled the Old Lady to splash the cash in the transfer market. This is a major shift in mentality relative to seasons past in which all signings (see 'Prudent signings' section in article below) were financially conservative relatively speaking. To give a few examples, over the past 2 seasons Juventus has signed Alex Sandro (26 million Euros from Porto), Miralem Pjanic (32 million Euros from Roma), Paulo Dybala (32 million Euros from Palermo) and most significantly Gonzalo Higuain (90 million Euros from Napoli).

The signings of Higuain and Pjanic simultaneously played the role of significantly improving the technical level of the team while simultaneously weakening their strongest competition in Serie A (Napoli and Roma in this case, respectively). The signing of Higuain said one thing and one thing only - Juventus want to win the Champions League. Personally, I think the gamble will pay off, and Juve will take that extra step this time. We'll find out whether or not that's the case in a few hours, and regardless of the outcome today, expect to consistently see the Old Lady in the very latter stages of the Champions League for years to come.

Transfer Market Strategy: How Juventus built a team capable of reaching the Champions League Final

Having won a Serie A and Coppa Italia domestic double, Juventus is still on track to complete the treble when the club faces FC Barcelona on June 6th in Berlin. Irrespective of how the Champions' League Final matchup unfolds, Juve has already achieved a significant milestone by reaching the Champions' League Final; a milestone to which the likes of PSG and Manchester City have not come close having spent significantly more money than the Bianconeri over the past few seasons. 

While it's easy to talk about the luck Juventus has had along the way in being drawn against Monaco and Dortmund (as opposed to tougher opponents), I'd rather highlight some of the transfer market strategies off the pitch that have helped the club excel on it. In an era of massive spending and UEFA Financial Fair-play, in addition to being the only team in Italy with its own stadium, Juventus has shown that through a combination of shrewd scouting, Bosman (free-transfer) signings and prudent spending, you can build a team capable of competing at the highest level of European competition. While the following strategies don't entirely explain Juve's success, they certainly explain a significant portion of it.

Bosman Signings:
Taking advantage of the free-agency rules in place following the Bosman ruling, the Old Lady has been able to make a number of impressive transfers on a free, including the likes of Kingsley Coman, Andrea Pirlo, Paul Pogba and Fernando Llorente. These players have provided a significant contribution to the Old Lady's successful season, and when you consider the potential re-sale value of players such as Llorente and Pogba, the return on investment in these players for Juve could be tremendous.

Prudent Signings:
Through a unique ability to consistently find value in the transfer market, Juve has been able to sign great players at a bargain such as Barzagli (€0.3M Euros from Wolfsburg), Lichtsteiner (€10M Euros from Lazio), Asamoah (€9M Euros to end co-ownership with Udinese), Arturo Vidal (€10.5M from Bayer Leverkusen) and Evra (£1.5M from Manchester United). When the club has decided to spend bigger sums of money, it has tended to do so on young outstanding talent with major re-sale value who will provide significant ROI over time, one way or another. Alvaro Morata (€20M from Real Madrid) is an example of this, having scored in both legs of the Champions' League semi-final against Madrid. Yet, Los Blancos have an option to take back the Spanish forward for €30M in 2016 or 2017.

Mature Signings:
Regardless of whether signings qualify as Bosman or prudent, Juve is able to sign players at an age where they are undervalued by the market yet the club is convinced (often correctly) they can be worth more to the Bianconeri. Pirlo, Barzagli and Evra fall into this category of Juventus signings. Due to their age alone, the value of these three players on the transfer market is a small fraction of that of say Kroos, Varane and Marcelo respectively, yet their contribution on the pitch is much more comparable. Even in the case of signing established stars such as Carlos Tevez (signed for a paltry £12M from Manchester City), the Turin club is able to take advantage of unique market opportunities to sign players at a significant discount to their true value.

Italian Core:
For better or for worse, Juventus, like many Italian teams that've enjoyed European success, is anchored by a solid Italian core of defenders. Buffon, Chiellini, Bonucci, and Barzagli provide assurances at the back similar to those provided by the likes of Baresi, Maldini, Costacurta and Tassotti in Sacchi's Milan team in the 90's. This foundation allows the more creative players to concentrate on their jobs knowing that they are well-protected at the back.

These are some of the reasons Juventus has been able to dominate in Italy while reaching the champions League final despite having a significantly smaller average player value (APV) than every team that made the final 8 with the exception of Monaco and Porto (see APVs below). Juve's APV is also significantly lower than teams that didn't make the final 8 such as Chelsea ( €21.12M APV), Manchester City (€18.18M APV) and Arsenal (€14.95M APV). In addition, the Old Lady already has future stars on her books such as Daniele Rugani (One of Italy's most promising young defenders), while Palermo's impressive young Argentine forward Paulo Dybala has been signed for a reported €40M. In the event that Juve decides to sell Paul Pogba for an astronomical figure this summer (or next), Giuseppe Marotta, Fabio Paratici and team will be ready to continue to close the deals required to strengthen the squad going forward.

Average Player Value (APV) of last 8 teams in 2014/2015 Champions' League (transfer values from transfermarkt.com

Top 12 prospects coming out this year's UEFA Youth League Semi-finals

• The average player value (APV) of the top 12 prospects in the second ever edition (2014/2015 season) of the UEFA Youth League is €0.85M
• Roma and Paraguay striker Antonio Sanabria (pictured below) is the most highly valued player among the final four (Chelsea, Roma, Shakhtar and Anderlecht) at €4M
• Roma's Daniele Verde (€1M) Anderlecht's Andy Kawaya (€0.8M) and Chelsea's Andreas Christensen(€0.75M), all pictured above, are among the top 5 on the list, while Anderlecht's €0.8M valued 17 year old centre-forward Aaron Leya Iseka is the youngest player among the top 12
• Defensive midfielder Beka Vachiberadze (valued at €0.5M) is the most valued player on the other UEFA Youth League semi-finalist Shakhtar Donetsk roster

Top 12 players in 2014/2015 Semi-Final Lineup (Transfer market values from transfermarkrt.com)

Analysis of this year's surprising Europa League Semi-Finalists - Dnipro Individual Player Transfer Market Valuations

Key Soccerlytics Insights:

• Dnipro FC has a total transfer market value of €82.7M and an average player value of €2.76M
• Of the four teams left in this season's Europa League, Dnipro has a significantly lower APV compared to Fiorentina(€5.46M APV), Sevilla(€6.49M APV) and Napoli (€9.72M APV)
• Pictured above, winger Konoplyanka (€16M) is Dnipro's most highly valued player, and a likely transfer target for some Europe's top clubs this summer.
• Konoplyanka, who has been linked with Liverpool, Tottenham and Roma in the past, is valued at 480% above Dnipro's €2.76M APV 
• 25 year old Ukrainian International Roman Zozulya (€6.5M) is the most highly valued striker in the squad
• 26 year old Czech International Ondrej Mazuch (€5M) is the most highly valued defender in the squad

Transfer Market Value Index Chart as of 5/5/2015 (Market Value data from Transfermarkt.com)

Why Ospina should keep his Arsenal place ahead of Szczesny

          Arsenal’s Wojciech Szczesny has spent the last few games on the bench having been dropped in place of Colombian goal keeper David Ospina who has kept three clean sheets against Hull City in the FA Cup, and Stoke City and Manchester City in the Premier League since stepping in. While Ospina’s opportunity may have come about due to Szczesny’s transgressions off the pitch, a quick look at the performance of both keepers over the two prior seasons suggests that Ospina has maintained a stronger record between the posts.

Ospina vs Szczesny Goal Keeper Statistics over the past two seasons:

          In the 2012/2013 season, Ospina averaged 1.81 saves per goal conceded (while at Nice in France’s Ligue 1) while Szczesny averaged 1.75 saves per goal for Arsenal. Goals conceded per 90 were almost equal for both keepers at 1.02 and 0.96 for Ospina and Szcsesny respectively. During the more recent 2013/2014 season, Ospina completely out-performed Arsenal’s Polish Custodian in the saves per goal category with 3.39 compared to Szczesny’s 1.95, and also conceded fewer goals per 90 (0.91 compared to 1.11). Given Ospina’s statistical superiority over the past two seasons as well as a strong performance at the 2014 World Cup, he is certainly deserving of an opportunity to show what he can do at Arsenal, and so far he is off to a good start.

Scouting Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A

Key Soccerlytics Insights:

• Cruzeiro has the highest Average Player Value (APV) in the Brazilian Serie A at €3.16M, which is 259% higher than the league's €0.88M APV
• The APV of the top 25 players aged 23 years old or younger is €2.68M 
• Of the 25 players, 5 play for Flamengo, the most of any one club in the league
• Lucas Silva (pictured above right) and Mayke (pictured above left) both of Cruzeiro have the have the highest transfer market values (TMVs) among the u23s
• 3 out of the top 25 players are not Brazilian: Palmeiras' Argentine midfielder Agustin Allione, Flamengo's Argentine attacking midfielder Lucas Mugni and Cruzeiro's Cameroonian Striker Joel
• The APV of the top 25 players aged 19 years old younger is €0.53M
• Of the 25 players, 5 play for Gremio, the most of any one club in the league
• Vasco's striker Thalles and Santos' support-striker Gabriel have the highest TMVs in this category at €2.5M and €1M respectively
• 11 out of the top 25 most highly valued players aged 19 or younger are currently  partaking in the 2014 South American Youth Football Championship in Uruguay

Top 25 Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A aged 23 years old or younger

Top 25 Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A aged 19 years old or younger

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A (€0.88M) Index as of 1/19/2015 (Market Value data from Transfermarkt.com

Scouting the Colombian Categoria Primera A

Key Soccerlytics Insights:

• Atletico Nacional has the highest Average Player Value (APV) in the Colombian Categoria Primera A at €0.53M, which is 84% higher than the league's average of €0.29M
• Millonarios FC (€0.47M) has the second highest APV Index at 62% to the Categoria's €0.29M average
• 6 other clubs (Independiente Santa Fe, Atletico Junior, Deportivo Cali, Independiente Medellin, Deportes Tolima and Aguilas Doradas) make up the 8 clubs with a higher APV than the league average
• Boyaca Patriotas FC (€0.11M) has the lowest APV in the league, 60% below the Colombian Categoria Primera A
• The APV of the top 25 players aged 23 years or younger in the Colombian league is €0.49M
• Of the 25 players, 4 play for Atletico Nacional, the most of any one club in the country
• Atletico Nacional's Sebastian Perez (pictured above) and Santa Fe's Juan Daniel Roa have the 2 highest TMVs (transfer market values) in the league at €1M and €0.8M respectively
• Only one of the top 25 players is not Colombian: CD La Equidad's Uruguayan Left winger Matias Jones valued at €0.45M

Top 25 Colombian Categoria Primera A players aged 23 years old or younger

Colombian Categoria Primera A Average Player Value (€0.29M) Index as of 1/18/2015 (Market Value data from Transfermarkt.com